ARIANE CRAFTS ANALYSIS

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Blog Annual Lecture 2025 and 2026 Agenda: Our Campaign for  Human Rights in an Era of ISIS Neo-Imperialism and Fragile EU-USA Alliances

Ariane Denise Brito

Publisher : © Ariane Crafts

New York, 2025

www.arianebritoanalysis.org

For academic purposes : BRITO, ARIANE. 2025. “ARIANE BRITO ANALYSIS – Annual Lecture 2025 and 2026 Agenda: Our Campaign for  Human Rights in an Era of ISIS Neo-Imperialism and Fragile EU-USA Alliances© .” Arianebritoanalysis.org. 2025. https://www.arianebritoanalysis.org/

ALL COPYRIGHTS RESERVED.

Introduction

 2025 for our blog in a nutshell: The Convergence of Theory, Craft, and Geopolitics

As I present   this Annual Lecture to revise the year 2025, we are witnessing  a global transformation that demands not merely observation, but a rigorous, structural analysis of the forces shaping our world. The transition of Ariane Brito Analysis (ABA) from a blog of analysis and commentary to a solid Think Tank, now integrated with the tactile, human-centric mission of Ariane Crafts Analysis (ACA), reflects a necessary evolution in how we address the crises of our time. We have moved beyond the passive documenting of atrocities to the active formulation of social theory models—frameworks designed to dismantle the engines of terrorism, poverty, and exploitation that plague the Global South.

This year has been defined by a violent parallel duality. On one hand, we have witnessed the entrenchment of violence in West Africa and the Levant, driven by actors who weaponise theology and history to resurrect ancient forms of subjugation. On the other, we see the crumbling of the European political façade, exposing the cynical mechanisms by which the “civilised” world has long managed its peripheries. The conviction of former French President Nicolas Sarkozy in late 2025 acts as a grim totem of this decay, validating long-held suspicions about the collusion between the European extreme right and the very dictators they publicly condemn.

Our mission at ABA and ACA has always been to prioritise human rights, not as an abstract legal concept, but as a lived reality. This commitment is woven into the very fabric of our “Stitch and Shelter Initiative,” which seeks to protect South African women from the ravages of textile waste pollution and economic destitution. It is embedded in our “Drug Independence” model, which proposes a radical rethinking of substance regulation to break the financial back of narco-terrorism. And most significantly, it is the cornerstone of my recent publications, How Portugal and Other European Nations can create the conditions for Mass Voluntary Repatriation to African and Arab countries and How the Middle East Nations can create the conditions for Mass Voluntary Return of the Arab and Kurdish Diaspora.

In this lecture, I will contextualise these publications within the volatile international landscape of 2025. I will analyse the dynamics of international terrorism through two distinct, competing frames: the Israeli argument regarding ISIS as a neo-imperialist restoration project, and the European narrative of right-wing complicity with regimes like Gaddafi’s. We will  breakdown for our readers  the historical and economic crucible of Nigeria, analysing the recent US airstrikes in Sokoto through the lens of Usman dan Fodio’s jihad, the “goat economy”, and the modern slave trade. Finally, we will look forward, proposing a robust campaign for the G20 2026 US presidency   to sever the blood-soaked link between energy resources and conflict.

This is not merely a review of the year; it is our Agenda  for the future of ABA and ACA.

Chapter I: The Discourse of Illegal Migrants Return – Theory and Practice in 2025

The prevailing discourse on migration in Europe and the Middle East has long been paralysed by a false binary: the “open borders” idealism that ignores social capacity and security concerns, versus the “fortress Europe” xenophobia that advocates for violent deportation. My work in 2025 has been dedicated to shattering this binary through the concept of Mass Voluntary Repatriation.

1.1 Beyond Deportation: The Thesis of “Conditions”

In How Portugal and Other European Nations can create the conditions for Mass Voluntary Repatriation to African and Arab countries, I argue that the answer to irregular migration is not the reinforcement of borders—a strategy that has failed spectacularly, as evidenced by the continued flow of migrants through the porous Sahel—but the reconstruction of the origin. The European extreme right, fuelled by populist rhetoric, speaks of “remigration” as a punitive measure, a forced expulsion that violates international law and human dignity. My thesis argues that repatriation must be a pull factor, not a push factor.

Comparison of ApproachesRight-Wing “Remigration”ABA Voluntary Repatriation Model
MechanismCoercive, state-enforced expulsion.Incentive-based, voluntary return.
Legal StatusOften violates non-refoulement.Aligns with UN/IOM frameworks.
Economic ImpactHigh cost of enforcement/detention.Investment in origin country infrastructure.
Social OutcomeRadicalisation of diaspora, resentment.Restoration of dignity, brain gain for origin.

1.2 The Middle Eastern Dimension: Diaspora and Stabilisation

The companion volume, How the Middle East Nations can create the conditions for Mass Voluntary Return of the Arab and Kurdish Diaspora, applies this logic to the Levant. The displacement of millions of Syrians, Iraqis, and Kurds is a wound that continues to bleed into the stability of the entire region.

The analysis in this book aligns with the diplomatic shifts observed in late 2025. The lifting of sanctions on Syria, contingent on verifiable human rights benchmarks, is a critical step. However, my work emphasises that the Diaspora itself is the greatest asset for reconstruction. The Arab and Kurdish diaspora in Europe possesses the technical skills, capital, and democratic experience necessary to rebuild the Middle East.

The resistance to this return often comes from entrenched regimes and, paradoxically, from terrorist groups like ISIS. ISIS thrives on a population that is desperate, uneducated, and isolated. A returning diaspora, empowered and economically independent, represents an existential threat to the Caliphate’s ideology. Therefore, creating the conditions for their return is an act of counter-terrorism. It denies the extremists the vacuum they need to operate.

Chapter II: The Dynamics of International Terrorism – The “Israel Argument” and Empire Restoration

To understand the violence that has characterised 2025, particularly the resurgence of ISIS in West Africa and the persistence of conflict in the Middle East, we must adopt a frame of analysis often cited by Israeli intelligence and academic circles but frequently ignored by Western policymakers. This frame posits that ISIS is not merely a terrorist organisation but a revanchist movement seeking to restore an “Arab Expansionist Empire.”

2.1 The Theology of Empire and Slavery

Israeli scholars, such as Dr Mordechai Kedar, have long argued that Western analysts fail to grasp the “cultural codes” of the Middle East, specifically the tribal and imperial memory that drives groups like ISIS. The “Caliphate” is not just a religious aspiration; it is a memory of a time when the Arab world was the geopolitical centre, and its economy was powered by conquest and slavery.

In 2025, ISIS has doubled down on the theological justification of slavery, a concept known as Sabia (war captives). This is not a peripheral aspect of their ideology; it is central to their state-building project. The group’s literature explicitly mocks modern human rights norms, arguing that the abolition of slavery was a Western imposition designed to weaken Islam. They cite apocalyptic hadiths claiming that the revival of slavery is a precursor to the “Hour” (the end times).

This theological framework has devastating implications for Africa. The historical Arab expansionist empires partnered with European markets but viewed Black Africans (the Zanj) and non-Muslims through the lens of servitude. The “Israel Argument” suggests that ISIS seeks to restore this specific racial and economic hierarchy:

  • The Yazidi Precedent: The enslavement of thousands of Yazidi women and girls in Iraq was the test case for this policy. By categorising Yazidis as mushrik (polytheists), ISIS stripped them of human rights, reducing them to chattel to be bought and sold.
  • The African Application: In 2025, we see this logic applied to Nigeria and the Sahel. The kidnapping of schoolgirls (a tactic refined by Boko Haram and adopted by ISIS-West Africa) is not just for ransom; it is the acquisition of Sabia. The terrorists view these Christian African populations as the rightful property of the Caliphate, to be used as labour or sexual slaves, mirroring the trans-Saharan slave trade of centuries past.

2.2 The Strategic Partnership with the “Periphery”

The “Empire” frame also illuminates the strategic behaviour of ISIS. Historically, Arab empires maintained complex trade relationships with European peripheries while exploiting the African interior. Today, ISIS mimics this by attempting to access global markets (smuggling oil, antiquities, and even people) while subjugating local populations.

This analysis challenges the Western narrative that ISIS is purely nihilistic. Instead, it suggests they are hyper-rational imperialists. They are building an economy based on extraction—of resources and human beings. Understanding this helps explain why “development aid” often fails in these regions; the adversary is not poverty, but a competing state-building project that views the local population as a resource to be consumed.

Chapter III: The European Betrayal – Sarkozy, Gaddafi, and the Far-Right

While the “Israel Argument” provides a lens for understanding the enemy’s ideology, the second frame of analysis exposes the rot within the Western alliance itself. The legal reckoning of Nicolas Sarkozy in 2025 serves as undeniable evidence of the European extreme right’s complicity in the very crises they claim to solve.

3.1 The Sarkozy-Gaddafi Pact: Anatomy of a Conspiracy

In late 2025, Nicolas Sarkozy became the first former French President to be sentenced to prison for criminal conspiracy, specifically regarding the financing of his 2007 campaign by the Libyan dictator Muammar Gaddafi. This verdict is not merely a footnote in French legal history; it is a geopolitical earthquake.

The “corruption pact” revealed by the court validates a theory I have long proposed: that the European establishment, particularly the “New Right” (or droite décomplexée), does not seek to solve the migration crisis through structural development, but manages it through transactional alliances with “extremists”.

  • The Transaction: Sarkozy accepted up to €50 million from Gaddafi to secure the French presidency. In exchange, Gaddafi was rehabilitated on the world stage, allowed to pitch his Bedouin tent in the gardens of the Hôtel de Marigny, and treated as a strategic partner.
  • The “Gatekeeper” Model: The European Right used Gaddafi as a brutal border guard. As long as the money flowed to European politicians and the migrants were kept in Libyan dungeons, the Right could claim to be “controlling immigration” while simultaneously benefitting from the dictator’s largesse.

3.2 The Betrayal and the Collapse of Order

The cynical nature of this alliance was exposed in 2011. When Gaddafi became a liability during the Arab Spring—and perhaps threatened to reveal the illicit financing—Sarkozy led the charge to topple him. This betrayal was not motivated by a sudden love for democracy, but by the need to silence a co-conspirator.

The result was the collapse of the “Gatekeeper” model. Libya fractured into a mosaic of militias, creating the open corridor for migration and terrorism that plagues us today. The European Right created the vacuum that ISIS filled.

3.3 US Policy as the “Sole Restorer of Order”

In this vacuum of European credibility, United States policy has shifted dramatically in 2025. With the return of Donald Trump to the presidency, the US has adopted a posture of unilateral enforcement. The Trump administration views the European approach—endless summits, legal wrangling, and secret deals—as a failure.

The US airstrikes in Nigeria in December 2025 underscore this shift. While Europe is paralysed by the Sarkozy scandal and the internal contradictions of its migration policy, the US has positioned itself as the “Sole Restorer of Order.” This policy is blunt, kinetic, and transactional. It does not seek to build nations (an explicit rejection of the “forever wars” doctrine), but to “kill terrorists” and protect specific interests—in this case, the persecution of Christians.

This creates a dangerous dynamic where the world is caught between the neo-imperialism of ISIS and the punitive policing of the US, with Europe sidelined by its own moral corruption.

Chapter IV: Nigeria at the Crossroads – Tribes, Trade, and Theology

Nigeria is the crucible where these global forces—ISIS imperialism, European hypocrisy, and US unilateralism—collide. The events of December 2025 require a responsible  academic analysis  of the historical and economic strata of the region.

4.1 The US Strike in Sokoto: Deciphering the Christian Symbolism

On Christmas Day 2025, US Africa Command (AFRICOM) launched airstrikes against ISIS targets in Sokoto State, Northwest Nigeria. The timing (Christmas) and the target (Sokoto) are laden with symbolism that cannot be ignored.

  • The Religious Dimension: President Trump explicitly framed the strikes as a defence of Christians against “Islamic State terrorist scum”. By targeting Sokoto, the US struck at the heart of the Islamic establishment in Nigeria. Sokoto is not just a state; it is the seat of the Sultan of Sokoto, the spiritual leader of Nigerian Muslims.
  • The Cycle of Violence: The strikes address a gruesome reality: the targeting of churches by extremists. However, the military response risks creating a feedback loop where mosques become collateral damage or targets of retaliation, deepening the religious fault lines that threaten to tear the Nigerian federation apart.

4.2 Historical Context: Usman dan Fodio and the North African Invasion

To understand the tribal dynamics of the Northwest, we must look back to 1804 and the Jihad of Usman dan Fodio.

  • The Fulani Conquest: Dan Fodio, a Fulani scholar, led a revolution that overthrew the indigenous Hausa kingdoms (Gobir, Kano, Katsina) and established the Sokoto Caliphate. This was, in effect, a colonisation of the Hausa states by the Fulani, who established a theocratic hegemony that persists in the political structures of Northern Nigeria today.
  • North African Influence: The Jihad was heavily influenced by North African Islamic scholarship and the Qadiriyyah order. The Caliphate oriented itself northward, toward the trans-Saharan trade routes, rather than toward the Atlantic coast.
  • Modern Implications: The “banditry” in the Northwest today is often an expression of these unresolved historical tensions. The Fulani herdsmen, descendants of Fodio’s warriors, view the land through the lens of ancestral conquest and grazing rights. The breakdown of the symbiotic relationship between Hausa farmers and Fulani herders—exacerbated by climate change and land scarcity—has revived the spectre of the 1804 conquest, now armed with AK-47s instead of spears.

4.3 The “Goat Economy” and the Human Cargo

My  economic analysis reveals how the failure of legitimate trade drives the slave trade. Nigeria has historically been a significant producer of livestock, particularly goats and cattle.

  • The Turkey Connection: Turkey has aggressively courted Nigeria as a trading partner, aiming for a $5 billion trade volume with a focus on agriculture and livestock. Turkey’s investment in “halal” meat supply chains was intended to create a licit export route for Nigerian livestock.
  • The Failure of Licit Trade: However, corruption, poor infrastructure, and insecurity have strangled these formal channels. The “official” export numbers for live animals are negligible compared to the reality of the herds.
  • The Smuggling Pivot: When licit trade fails, illicit trade fills the void. The routes established to smuggle goats north into Niger and Libya—routes managed by Tuareg and Tebu intermediaries—did not close when the goat trade became difficult. They simply switched commodities.

The “Goat” Analogy and Modern Slavery

President Buhari’s lament in 2017 that Nigerians were being treated “like goats” in Libya was a chillingly accurate description of the supply chain. The commodification is identical.

  1. Transport: Migrants are packed into cattle trucks, moving along the same ancient trans-Saharan routes used for livestock.
  2. Markets: In Libya, they are sold in open markets. The “value” of a human being in these markets fluctuates with supply and demand, just like livestock.
  3. Labour: Those who are not trafficked to Europe are forced into labour on farms or in construction, often working alongside the very animals they might have once raised.

This is the grim economic reality: conflict and corruption in Nigeria displace labour (young men and women). The blockage of legal routes turns them into “irregular migrants.” The predatory networks in the Sahel then process them as raw material—either as slaves for the Libyan International Modern Slave Trade  economy or as extortion targets for their families back home.

Chapter V: The G20 Imperative – A Campaign for “Minerals for Peace”

Against this backdrop of ISIS neo-imperialism, betrayal, and commodification, the international community must act. The upcoming G20 Summit in the United States in 2026 presents a singular opportunity. The theme “Solidarity, Equality, and Sustainability” must be translated into hard policy.

I propose a new 2026 Civil Right G20 Campaign: 

Minerals for Peace: Decoupling Energy from Conflict

5.1 The Resource Curse as a Driver of Terror

The “Resource Curse” is the engine that keeps these conflicts running. ISIS fights for territory in the Levant and West Africa because territory equals control over oil wells, gas pipelines, and now, critical mineral deposits (lithium, gold). Sarkozy’s corruption was fueled by the desire to secure French energy interests in Libya. As long as these resources can be extracted and sold without transparency, the war machines will never run out of fuel.

5.2 Campaign Proposals for the US Presidency

The campaign and appeal for the 2026 G20 US Presidency will   focus on three policy aspects:

 1: The “Conflict Carbon” Protocol

Just as the world established the Kimberley Process for blood diamonds, the G20 must establish a rigorous tracking and certification system for oil, gas, and critical minerals.

  • Mechanism: G20 nations must agree to ban the import of energy resources from territories controlled by non-state actors (like ISIS) or regimes that cannot prove the revenue is not funding human rights abuses (like forced labour in Libya).
  • Transparency: Mandate the publication of all extraction contracts. If a European company pays a “signing bonus” to a Nigerian official or a Libyan warlord, it must be public. This destroys the secrecy that allowed the Sarkozy-Gaddafi pact to flourish.

 2: Phasing Out Fossil Fuel Subsidies for Peace

The G20 nations spend over $500 billion annually subsidising fossil fuels. This artificially inflates the value of oil, making oil-rich lands like the Niger Delta or the Libyan crescent worth killing for.

  • The Shift: I propose a binding timeline for the G20 to redirect 50% of these subsidies into a “Just Energy Transition Fund” by 2030.
  • Impact: By lowering the global reliance on oil, we reduce the geopolitical premium of these conflict zones. Furthermore, the redirected funds can finance the renewable energy infrastructure needed in the Repatriation countries I outline in my books. Solar panels and wind farms, distributed and decentralised, are harder for terrorists to capture and monetise than a centralised oil refinery.

 3: Value Capture and Local Beneficiation

The current model of extracting raw materials (whether goats, oil, or lithium) and exporting them creates poverty in the origin country.

  • Action: The G20 must support African nations in developing local processing capacity. Nigerian leather should be processed in Sokoto, not exported raw to Turkey. Nigerian oil should be refined in Port Harcourt.
  • Counter-Terrorism: This creates jobs. A young man with a job in a refinery or a tannery is far harder for ISIS to recruit than an unemployed desperate youth. It drains the swamp of recruits that the terrorists rely on.

Conclusion: A Year of Revision, A Future of Action

We can no longer pretend that the “migration crisis” is an accident of history; it is the predictable result of the “Sarkozy-Gaddafi” model of transactional diplomacy. We can no longer deny that ISIS is a neo-imperialist force that views Africans as commodities. We can no longer ignore that the “Goat Economy” and the “Slave Economy” are two sides of the same coin, forged in the fires of the Sahel.

However, revision is not just about looking back in anger; it is about looking forward with purpose. The work of Ariane Brito Analysis and Ariane Crafts Analysis offers a coherent path forward.

  1. We must replace “Deportation” with “Voluntary Repatriation”: By building the infrastructure of return, as detailed in my books, we restore dignity and steal the narrative from the extremists.
  2. We must replace “Dependence” with “Independence”: Whether it is drug independence to defund narco-terror, or energy independence to break the resource curse.
  3. We must protect the Human: Through initiatives like “Stitch and Shelter,” we assert that a woman’s value lies in her creativity and her life, not in her price on a Libyan auction block.

The US airstrikes in Sokoto materialise the fight against terrorism, but they are not policy proposals like mine to combat the ideology of the Caliphate. Only a structural transformation of the region—economic, social, and political—can do that. The G20 in the United States is our stage. My social  theory models  are published and ready to strike. The time for action is now.

Ariane Denise Brito

Publisher : © Ariane Crafts

New York, 2025

www.arianebritoanalysis.org

For academic purposes : BRITO, ARIANE. 2025. “ARIANE BRITO ANALYSIS – Annual Lecture 2025 and 2026 Agenda: Our Campaign for  Human Rights in an Era of ISIS Neo-Imperialism and Fragile EU-USA Alliances© .” Arianebritoanalysis.org. 2025. https://www.arianebritoanalysis.org/

ALL COPYRIGHTS RESERVED.

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